These metro counties are winning the migration equation —and dollars

Shelby County has over 900,000 residents, of which the city of Memphis accounts for more than 600,000. Given a persistent population decline in Memphis, the data point that Shelby County has the highest metro-area deficit in migration patterns is not unexpected.

What’s surprising is the dollar cost associated with residents relocating to metro counties and moving beyond the area’s borders to cities in other states.

Based on a Business Journals analysis of IRS tax filings, Shelby County lost $437 million in residents’ adjusted gross income (AGI) due to net migration changes from 2021 to 2022. Looking back over a decade (2011 vs. 2022), Shelby County’s in-migration minus its out-migration resulted in a net loss of $3.2 billion in resident AGI. And, the charts below illustrate the decades-long shift of residents from the city of Memphis core — and West Memphis as a bedroom community for that core in the 1960s and 1970s — toward communities in DeSoto County, Mississippi, and Fayette and Tipton counties. 

While DeSoto County has had a long history of siphoning off Shelby County residents and remains high on local in-migration patterns, Fayette and Tipton counties’ geography could create an advantage in the years ahead. Ford’s BlueOval City campus is in Haywood County, which shares a border with both those counties. Separately, Fayette County has also become a wealth destination, seeing in-migration (2021-22) of earners with an average return of $93,000.